Aggies and Huskies square off in Seattle

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

12/22/2009 - Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 22nd-ranked Washington Huskies put their perfect home mark on the line, as they play host to the 19th-ranked Aggies of Texas A&M tonight at Bank of America Arena in the final matchup of the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series.

Texas A&M has jumped out to a 9-2 start thanks to a pair of four-game win streaks. The Aggies were most recently in action this past Saturday, as they beat up on The Citadel in a 71-50 final. A&M improved to 6-0 at home with that triumph, and coach Mark Turgeon's club is playing its fourth ranked opponent of the young season tonight, after taking two of three in bouts with Clemson, West Virginia and Minnesota during the 76 Classic in Anaheim, California at the end of November. The Aggies are just 4-22 all-time against teams that currently call the Pac-10 home, although they have won their last two against Pac-10 foes.

Washington opened the season with five straight victories, but has since come back to Earth by splitting its last four games. The Huskies fell for the first time in 2009-10 to Texas Tech (99-92 in OT), which makes its home in the Big 12 Conference -- same as Texas A&M -- and that was followed by a win over Cal State Northridge (88-76). Then came a 74-66 loss to Georgetown before coach Lorenzo Romar's squad whipped the University of Portland in its most recent outing, 89-54, on Saturday. Washington plays its basketball out of the Pac-10 Conference, and the league slate is sure to feature plenty of tough outs, and it all begins on New Year's Eve when the Oregon State Beavers come to town. The Huskies have won their last three games at Bank of America Arena against a ranked opponent, although all have come in league play. A closer look shows UW has lost eight in a row to ranked non-conference foes, with its last win coming against No. 12 LSU on December 20, 2006.

Texas A&M has beaten Washington in each of the last three meetings to pull ahead in the all-time series, 3-1. The teams last met in the semifinals of the 2007 NIT, with the Aggies prevailing in a 77-63 final. Washington's lone win over A&M was in the 1951 NCAA Tournament.

Texas A&M is averaging 74.7 ppg on the strength of 46.8 percent field goal accuracy, while limiting the opposition to 64.0 ppg on 40.9 percent shooting efficiency. The team boasts just two double-digit scorers, although one of them is Donald Sloan, whose 17.4 ppg has his ranked seventh in the Big 12 coming into action this week. A 52.9 percent shooter who has drained a club- best 18 three-pointers thus far, Sloan also serves as the team's second- leading assist man (28) while also coming up with 4.0 rpg. Derrick Roland is netting 11.1 ppg, and B.J. Holmes chips in 9.7 ppg despite coming off the bench in all 11 games. The Aggies shot 53.3 percent from the floor, and got 26 points from their bench as they easily rolled The Citadel on Saturday, winning by 21. Sloan led the way with 17 points, while Nathan Walkup added 12 and Kris Middleton finished with 11. A&M held the Bulldogs to 32.7 percent shooting from the field, which included a dismal 5-of-21 effort from beyond the arc. A 38-26 rebounding edge also helped the Aggies' cause. The Citadel scored just 11 points in the first half.

Washington hasn't been quite as good defensively as has its counterpart tonight, yielding 70.4 ppg on a typical shooting effort of 43.8 percent. The Huskies have done well in defending the long-range shot though, holding foes to just 26.6 percent. At the offensive end, UW is putting up a Pac-10-best 84.3 ppg behind 45.5 percent shooting from the field. The three-point shot has not been nearly as kind to the Huskies, however, as only 32.9 percent of their tries have found the bottom of the net. With its plus-10.6 rebounding margin, Washington is the league's top team on the glass. Quincy Pondexter is one of the nation's best two-way players, as he is averaging 21.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per game to lead the team in both categories. Isaiah Thomas is the only double-digit scorer at the moment for Washington, as he is netting 19.9 ppg in hitting nearly 41 percent of his three-point tries. In the recent rout of Portland, Pondexter and Thomas once again led the way, netting 17 and 16 points, respectively. Scott Suggs contributed a career-high 13 points in the easy win for UW, which shot 54.8 percent from the floor, nailed 8-of-14 treys, and scored 35 points off of 22 Pilot turnovers.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship

(September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.

One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year.

Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season.

MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.

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