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08/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sooner or later the Washington Nationals would fall from grace after their hot start this month.
As Homer said to Bart during an old April Fool's episode of The Simpsons, "You couldn't fool your mother on the foolingest day of your life if you had an electrified fooling machine."
The same can be said for the Nationals in August after they opened the month with five straight wins. Then manager Manny Acta's ballclub began playing much like the NL East doormats they have always been, losing nine of the following 13 games, including a current four-game slide.
Most sports fans with a pulse could have predicted that the Nationals had no chance of making the playoffs back in April, and those bets will still stand strong when October rolls around. I also don't claim to be a genius with that assessment, but it gets pretty old watching this franchise falter in the summer heat year after year.
Washington just completed a six-game homestand against division rivals Philadelphia and New York, ending with a 1-5 record. It scored no more than four runs in each of those contests and fell to 31-34 at RFK Stadium this season.
Maybe a season-long 10-game road trip is what Acta's club needs to get back in the win column. The Nationals own an 8-10 road record since the beginning of July and will pay visits to Houston (four games), Colorado (three games) and Los Angeles (three games) with hopes of improving a 24-35 road mark.
NATS ADD PENA TO ROSTER
Nats general manager Jim Bowden liked what he saw from Wily Mo Pena while with the Cincinnati Reds and dealt for the outfielder last week. Pena and cash considerations were sent to Washington from Beantown for a player to be named.
Pena, who hit .218 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 73 games with Boston this year, made his Washington debut on Saturday at RFK Stadium against the New York Mets. Pena started in left field and went 1-for-4 with two runs scored in a 7-4 setback to the division-leading Mets. He then homered in Sunday's loss.
"He brings legitimate power," teammate Dmitri Young said of Pena. "He will complement our guys who will hit the gaps. It's just a matter of getting some playing time. "Nothing against [Ryan] Church, because Church has been doing the job all year, but ultimately Pena will make every player better."
JOHNSON WILL NOT PLAY IN '07
Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson will not play this season in order to recover from a broken right femur suffered in a collision with teammate Austin Kearns against the New York Mets on September 23 last season.
Johnson has been rehabilitating ever since and his return date was pushed back several times. Johnson also received two cortisone shots to kill the pain and, according to GM Jim Bowden, his hip has been giving him the most problems.
The slugger, who batted .290 with 23 homers and 77 RBI in 2006, was sent to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN this week and doctors discovered bursitis in the hip. It was then suggested Johnson undergo surgery to remove the rod and screw that had been inserted in the broken femur.
Johnson is expected to have the procedure done on Saturday in Washington. Doctors believe he will be ready for Spring Training next year.
WHO'S HOT
Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who owns 13 extra-base hits this month, batted .348 with five doubles and two RBI during the recent six-game homestand.
Zimmerman is hitting.333 with 16 RBI in 19 games since July 31. He owns a .310 batting average and 45 hits after the All-Star break.
WHO'S NOT
Washington catcher Brian Schneider has just a .222 batting average (4-for-20) over his last eight games.
Infielder Felipe Lopez has one hit in his past 18 at-bats after recording 21 hits over the previous 68 plate appearances.
ON DECK
The Nationals open a season-long 10-game road trip on Monday night with the first of four games against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.
They will then visit the Colorado Rockies for three games at Coors Field before opening a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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