McIlroy posts record-tying 63; Woods four back

Golf Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rory McIlory said the thought crept into his head on 17 that he could set or match the low round in a major.

He missed his four-footer for birdie on 17, but closed with a three-foot birdie putt at the last to post a nine-under 63 Thursday at the British Open.

"I was thinking going up 17, what's the lowest score for a major," McIlory stated. "I didn't know it. I know there's been a few 63s, but wasn't sure if there were any 62s. That might have crept into my mind a little bit hitting that putt on 17."

It was the 24th time a player has posted a 63 in a major championship, but just second time it has happened on the Old Course at St. Andrews. It was also good enough for an early three-stroke lead for McIlory.

John Daly, the 1995 Open champion at St. Andrews, shares second place with Andrew Coltart at minus-six.

Three-time Open champion and world No. 1 Tiger Woods posted a five-under 67, carding six birdies and a lone bogey on the 17th. He hasn't played a bogey- free round all year.

Woods was joined in fourth place by Marcel Siem, Nick Watney, 2009 U.S. Open champion Lucas Glover and Sean O'Hair.

McIlroy didn't look like he'd be near the top of the leaderboard at the start of the round.

The 21-year-old from Northern Ireland birdied the third, but otherwise parred on seven of his first eight holes. His run started with an eagle on the par- four ninth.

Around the turn, he poured in three consecutive birdie chances from the 10th to jump to six-under. McIlroy knocked his second shot on the par-five 14th onto the forward tee of No. 15.

He chipped to 10 feet and drained that to take the lead at seven-under, then knocked in an eight-footer for birdie at the 15th to push his lead to two strokes.

McIlroy parred on 16 and 17, where his four-footer for birdie lipped out. At the last, he pitched his third to three feet and knocked that in for a closing birdie.

Woods had a steady round that started with a birdie on the second. After four pars in a row, he two-putted for birdie on the seventh and moved to three- under with a 22-foot birdie putt at the ninth.

On the back nine, Woods made his run and it started with a two-putt birdie on the 12th. He poured in a 20-footer on 13 and made it three straight with another two-putt birdie at 14.

He was two back at the time, but his deficit doubled late. After McIlroy closed with a birdie, Woods missed a four-foot par putt at 17 to slide four back.

Woods' drive at the last got close enough to the green for him to putt his second. He played a big-breaking putt within seven feet, but missed the birdie putt on the left edge.

"I played pretty good today, I just missed two short putts there at 17 and 18," said Woods, who won two of his three Open titles on the Old Course. "It could have been a pretty special round. We had good weather. It felt like we were playing in a dome. The course could be had."

In his three British Open titles, Woods either led or trailed by one stroke after the first round. That won't be the case when Thursday's opening round finishes.

Defending champion Stewart Cink posted a two-under 70 with three birdies and a bogey. The man Cink defeated in a playoff last year at Turnberry, Tom Watson, managed a one-over 73.

Watson bogeyed three straight holes from the second, but birdied the fifth and got another back at the 14th.

"The course played very easy today," Watson admitted. "The wind is starting to come up and the prediction is that we're going to see stronger winds this afternoon and it's really going to blow tomorrow. The people in the morning had a big advantage, and I didn't take very good advantage of it."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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