Perlozzo's dismissal could be just the beginning of O's overhaul

Baseball Betting Lines

06/19/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I wasn't exactly the Amazing Kreskin a few weeks ago when I predicted that Baltimore Orioles manager Sam Perlozzo was probably going to be the first manager fired.

With some of the veterans openly questioning his decisions, the writing was already on the wall. Plus there had reportedly been some internal discussions about replacing him, as well. So I can't really say I was going out on a limb.

Basically it wasn't a matter of if, it was when.

A six-game winning streak to close the month of May probably delayed the inevitable, but the swoon his team has endured since was too much for Perlozzo to overcome. The Orioles have won just twice in the month of June and apparently a 1-8 homestand was the final straw for owner Peter Angelos, who made Perlozzo the first manager to be fired this season on Monday.

Now the big question is, where do the Orioles go from here?

Reportedly the team has already hired former Chicago Cubs president Andy MacPhail as their chief operating officer and by all accounts his first choice to succeed Perlozzo is the NL's reigning Manager of the Year and current New York Yankees broadcaster Joe Girardi, whom MacPhail is somewhat familiar with from his time in Chicago.

Davey Johnson's name has also been bandied about. Johnson, of course, has major ties to the organization and was the last manager to guide them to a winning season back in 1997. Another name that has been linked to the position is that of Dusty Baker, who also has a relationship with MacPhail. Baker managed four years for the Cubs, while MacPhail was the GM.

Supposedly, though, it is Girardi's job if he wants it. Will he accept, though? Baltimore isn't exactly laden with young talent like the Florida Marlins were a year ago. There are no Miguel Cabreras or Dontrelle Willis' in the O's dugout that's for sure.

Instead Baltimore is stocked with the Melvin Moras, Miguel Tejadas and Kevin Millars of the world. While the players will listen to Girardi, since most of them probably played against him, I have a hard time believing his message will come across as clearly as it did to a bunch of wide-eyed, happy-to-be-in- the big league type players in Florida.

You'd have to think that the only way Girardi accepts this job is if he gets some sort of guarantee from Angelos and MacPhail that there will be a complete overhaul of the roster. I think the hiring of MacPahil, though, has already pretty much guaranteed that.

Dealing Tejada would be a good start. Anaheim desperately needs a bat to protect Vladimir Guerrero and has a ton of young talent to offer. Baltimore would be foolish not to ship him there. Plus a change of scenery might just be the shot of B-12 that he needs to get it going.

Girardi is in a tough position here. It is easy to say he can sit back and wait for any job he wants. But after a while if you keep turning jobs down, your phone will stop ringing.

Take Willie Randolph for example. Randolph was a "hot" managing prospect about a decade ago, but reportedly turned down jobs in Cincinnati and Milwaukee, primarily because he would have had to take a pay cut from his third base coaching gig with the Yankees. Randolph got some courtesy interviews after that, but it took him awhile before he was finally offered his job with the Mets.

Now, of course, Girardi is in a different spot here, he already has a Manager of the Year trophy under his belt, but what job could he possibly be waiting for? Any job he takes, he more than likely would be taking over a team that is in a bad situation, or they wouldn't be making a change. The Yankees are not going to fall into his lap. I would be shocked if Don Mattingly is not Joe Torre's successor.

If Girardi gets some assurances that changes will be made, Baltimore really isn't that bad of a situation. You can build a rotation around Erik Bedard and Adam Loewen and as scarce as it may be, there is some talent on the roster. Plus, catcher Matt Wieters, the team's first round draft pick, is close to major league ready already and by all accounts he was the best position player available this year.

Who better to tutor him than Girardi?

Angelos will also do whatever it takes to put a winner on the field. He has spent money in the past and I am sure he will in the future. Now that MacPhail is supposedly running the show, the money will be spent more wisely. In other words no more Albert Belle contracts.

The only downside for Girardi would be the fact that he would be playing in the same division with the Yankees and Red Sox. But, who doesn't like a challenge?

My guess is that Girardi takes this job. And when he does, let the fire sale, as well as the march back to respectability begin.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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