Zenyatta remains unbeaten with Santa Margarita win

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/13/2010 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time champion mare Zenyatta made a successful 2010 debut Saturday in the $250,000 Santa Margarita Invitational at Santa Anita Park. The six-year-old mare is now perfect in 15 career starts.

Zenyatta, trained by John Shirreffs, started from post eight with Mike Smith again with the mount. Owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, Zenyatta broke cleanly and immediately settled into last in the eight horse field.

Setting the pace in the 1 1/8-mile race was Dance to My Tune with Made for Magic pressing the pace in second. Zenyatta was running about a dozen lengths off the lead and was racing off the rail.

Zenyatta began her move from the rear as the field entered the far turn. Still off the rail, Zenyatta drew within a few lengths of the leaders as the field entered the stretch.

With a furlong to run the 3-10 favorite angled to the inside and found room to take the lead. Zenyatta posted a one-length victory over Dance to My Tune with Floating Heart finishing third.

Completing the order of finish was Striking Dancer, Pretty Unusual, Made for Magic, Pretty Katherine and Gripsholm Castle. Powerofvoodoo was a scratch.

The time for the Santa Margarita was 1:48.20 on Santa Anita's synthetic track.

"Obviously, he (Mike Smith) went to the inside, and then had to come back out," Shirreffs said. "So, I just have a lot of faith in Mike. I know once he gets her in the clear, he has a good chance. She's cut in between horses and everything, but when you have a big X on your back, a lot of places don't open up that normally would."

The last two years Zenyatta has been voted champion older female and for 2009 finished second for Horse of the Year to Rachel Alexandra. She won the 2008 Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic and last year became the first female to capture the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra are expected to start in the $5 million Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park on Friday, April 9. Earlier Saturday, Rachel Alexandra was upset in the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies at the Fair Grounds. The reigning Horse of the Year was a close second to Zardana who is also trained by Shirreffs.

"We're just excited she's back," said Jerry Moss. "She looks amazing. Everybody's happy. We watched Rachel's race in the paddock. I'm sorry she lost, but she lost to a better horse today. We'll see what happens the next race. Zardana might try to get to that same race (Apple Blossom) and that would be fine."

Zenyatta has won all 15 career starts for more than $5.6 million.

Earlier on the day, Shirreffs announced that Life is Sweet has been retired. The winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic had muscle cramps after a workout Saturday at Hollywood Park.

Zenyatta returned $2.60, $2.20 and $2.10. Dance To My Tune paid $19.00 and $9.40, and Floating Heart paid $4.20 to show.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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